House prices rose 10.3% in November - yet first monthly fall since October 2021

Average house price increased 10.3% year-on-year to November

A view of suburban houses in Surrey
(Image credit: Getty images)

The average house price increased 10.3% in November to £295,000, an increase of £28,000 more than the year before.

But the average price fell 0.3% compared to October 2022, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (opens in new tab) (ONS). This was the first monthly fall since October 2021. 

The annual growth rate also slowed, falling from 12.4% the previous month. 

England, Scotland and Wales all recorded a fall while London was notable for the weakest annual pace of price growth at 6.3% - this is less than half the rate in the North West of England where house prices rose 13.5%.

Mortgage rates have risen dramatically in the last few months. This is widely expected to cool activity in the property market: house prices are expected to fall over the next few months as buyers find it more difficult to borrow money or decide mortgage rates are too expensive which will force sellers to lower prices.

Commenting, Myron Jobson, senior personal finance analyst, interactive investor (opens in new tab), says: “Even though house price inflation has come down, it doesn’t mean that prices are falling. It just means that home prices aren’t rising as fast.

“Home prices have risen far more quickly than incomes, creating an affordability squeeze, and mortgage rates have risen to levels not seen since the financial crash. The likelihood of higher interest rates to combat high inflation means that affordability is likely to remain the top challenge for homebuyers – with the ongoing cost-of-living crisis scuppering deposit building efforts.”

Experts can’t agree on how far house prices will fall in 2023, or for how long, though two-thirds of economists expect falls of more than 4%, with most warning of near-double-digit declines, according to a survey by The Times (opens in new tab)

This could make 2023 the worst year for the housing market since 2009.

Related articles

Katie Binns

Katie is staff writer at The Money Edit. She was the former staff writer at The Times and The Sunday Times. Her experience includes writing about personal finance, culture, travel and interviews celebrities.  Her investigative work on financial abuse resulted in a number of mortgage prisoners being set free - and a nomination for the Best Personal Finance Story of the Year in the Headlinemoney awards 2021.